During WWII, a music librarian provided highly accurate reporting on the success of Allied air attacks in Berlin. Did he have access to special intelligence information? On the ground reporting? No. He analyzed local newspapers for information about last-minute changes to opera and theatre performances, and notices to ticket holders about refunds. From this he was able to draw conclusions about the timing, extent, and location of bomb damage.
Sound implausible? Like a lucky guess? It’s not. The reality is that most intelligence is derived from open sources.
We like to think of ‘spy stuff’ as classified and clandestine. And yes, some of it is. But collecting that stuff is expensive and difficult. The more protected information is, the more work and resources needed to get it.
Open source information, however, is publicly available. It’s much easier to obtain. But don’t let that ease fool you into thinking it’s useless.
Open source information, called OSINT, becomes valuable through analysis. On its own, it’s just billions of data points that individually have little meaning. It’s the grouping of those data points,finding patterns and themes, that gives OSINT its value.
It is a valuable part of intelligence collection for 3 reasons:
1. It outlines the big picture. It helps put the pieces of your clandestine information into context – simple things like understanding terminology or history, so you can infer subtext and intent.
2. OSINT is also critical for understanding your adversary. What we decide to put out into the world reveals a lot about who we are. This is as true for nation-states and their leaders as it is for you and me.
3. It can also show you how effective your actions are. This is nowhere truer than with propaganda. If you are conducting black propaganda operations to destabilize a country or influence their political landscape,you’ll be able to monitor open sources to see if you’re having an impact.
Good intelligence operations utilize open source information. Without it, the effectiveness of intelligence agencies would be severely diminished.
Read this:
The Origins of Totalitarianism by Hannah Arendt. I know, it’s heavy and not a subject that anyone wants to deal with. But it’s relevant, and she’s a great writer. If you can’t get through the whole thing, Part 3 is a must.
Thanks for giving me the gift of your time.
Rhiannon